🏛️ Political Fantasy · Kalshi
Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
Some part of Canada must come under formal US jurisdiction; a leased base does not count. Ottawa would have to hand over land voluntarily, and that is not how Canadians negotiate.
The hype curve (YES price)
Born overpriced, then reality sets in. Want the next one on day one? Get alerts.
The fine print (official resolution rules from Kalshi. Read them: this is where "impossible" bets get easy)
If the United States acquires any part of Canada before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Canada that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. Any part of Canada must come under formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system, where it was not previously. Merely leasing a given part in territory – for example, setting up a military base on leased territory – is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Tags: Politics · Listed Jan 9, 2025 · Judged Oct 31, 2026 by claude (manual review)
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