๐ Space Fantasy ยท Kalshi
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
Starship has never flown a single person. Launching a crew to Mars by 2029 needs a ship certified to keep people alive for months. Ambitious is one word for it.
The hype curve (YES price)
Born overpriced, then reality sets in. Want the next one on day one? Get alerts.
The fine print (official resolution rules from Kalshi. Read them: this is where "impossible" bets get easy)
If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Tags: Companies ยท Listed Mar 22, 2024 ยท Judged Oct 31, 2026 by claude (manual review)
More bets like this
Human moon landing in 2026?
No crewed lander is anywhere near the launch pad, and the Moon does not care about your 2026 deadline. Betting on a human touchdown this year is pure launchpad optimism.
- YES price
- 1%
- Money in
- $2.0M
- Deadline
- 62d Jan 1, 2027
๐ Alert day 3.2% โ now 1% ยท day-one NO +2.3%
Trump goes to space in 2026?
Betting a sitting president blasts past the 50-mile space threshold this year treats Air Force One like a launch vehicle. The only thing going to space here is the hype.
- YES price
- 2.6%
- Money in
- $66.6K
- Deadline
- 62d Jan 1, 2027
๐ Alert day 2.5% โ now 2.6% ยท day-one NO โ0.2%
Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?
The rules demand formal US recognition of Argentine sovereignty, not warm words, within two months. Washington has sat on this fence since 1982 and finds it very comfortable.
- YES price
- 11%
- Money in
- $2.6K
- Deadline
- 62d Jan 1, 2027
๐ Alert day 13% โ now 11% ยท day-one NO +2.3%