Will Trump nationalize SpaceX?

The fine print (official resolution rules from Kalshi. Read them: this is where "impossible" bets get easy)

If the United States begins the process of nationalizing SpaceX before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

For the purposes of this market, the United States begins the process of nationalizing SpaceX when any of the following occurs:
The President, Congress, or a federal agency announces or enacts legislation, an executive order, or a regulatory action that would result in the United States government acquiring a 50% or greater ownership stake in SpaceX.
The United States government acquires a 50% or greater ownership stake in SpaceX through any mechanism, including purchase, eminent domain, legislative action, or court order.
The United States government takes operational control of SpaceX through conservatorship, receivership, or a similar legal mechanism.
A bill specifically authorizing or mandating the nationalization of SpaceX becomes law.
The President issues an executive order directing the nationalization of SpaceX.

The following do NOT count:
Proposed legislation that has not been enacted, including a bill introduced by a member of Congress
Conditional announcements dependent on future events
Government equity stakes below 50%, unless accompanied by operational control
Government contracts or purchases from SpaceX
Regulatory actions or antitrust breakups that do not transfer ownership or control to the United States government
State or local government actions

SpaceX includes its parent company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries operating within the United States.

Tags: Politics · Listed Jun 6, 2025 · Judged Oct 31, 2026 by claude (manual review)