Live from the prediction markets · Saturday, October 31
Every hour an AI reads every new bet on Polymarket and Kalshi, ignores the sports and the crypto, and drags the most absurd ones out here for public humiliation. All of them are real. All of them are open. You can bet on every one.
Exhibit B: Is Earth flat?
98
Exhibit C: Will the US confirm that aliens exist by.…
88
Exhibit D: 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
88
Case file: open
#01 Only a signed law, an executive order or a 50%+ government stake counts; bills merely introduced do not. Two months to seize the world's biggest rocket company by paperwork.
📉 Alert day 9% → now 3% · day-one NO +6.6%
#02 OpenAI trading its famous name for a vague two-word sales pitch? Investors would sooner rebrand the sun than the company that just wants a catchier letterhead.
📉 Alert day 2.8% → now 6.7% · day-one NO −4.0%
#03 Anthropic would need to confess to a pathogen escape nobody has reported. The only thing escaping here is the premise itself.
📉 Alert day 11% → now 7% · day-one NO +3.9%
#04 Betting a startup announces it has achieved safe superintelligence before year-end is a press release fantasy. The only thing scarcer than the tech would be the proof.
📉 Alert day 5% → now 5.1% · day-one NO −0.1%
The machine checks Polymarket and Kalshi every hour. When a new absurd bet appears, you get one email while the hype is still fresh and YES is still overpriced. That's when the skeptics win. No spam, unsubscribe any time.