🚀 Space Fantasy · Polymarket
Human moon landing in 2026?
No crewed lander is anywhere near the launch pad, and the Moon does not care about your 2026 deadline. Betting on a human touchdown this year is pure launchpad optimism.
The hype curve (YES price)
Born overpriced, then reality sets in. Want the next one on day one? Get alerts.
The fine print (official resolution rules from Polymarket. Read them: this is where "impossible" bets get easy)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Tags: Tech, Culture, Science, Climate & Science · Listed Jan 7, 2026 · Judged Oct 31, 2026 by anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
More bets like this
Trump goes to space in 2026?
Betting a sitting president blasts past the 50-mile space threshold this year treats Air Force One like a launch vehicle. The only thing going to space here is the hype.
- YES price
- 2.6%
- Money in
- $66.6K
- Deadline
- 62d Jan 1, 2027
📉 Alert day 2.5% → now 2.6% · day-one NO −0.2%
Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?
Starship has never flown a single person. Launching a crew to Mars by 2029 needs a ship certified to keep people alive for months. Ambitious is one word for it.
- YES price
- 10%
- Money in
- $55.1K
- Deadline
- 1158d Jan 1, 2030
📉 Alert day 21% → now 10% · day-one NO +13.9%
Will Trump nationalize SpaceX?
Only a signed law, an executive order or a 50%+ government stake counts; bills merely introduced do not. Two months to seize the world's biggest rocket company by paperwork.
- YES price
- 3%
- Money in
- $21.8K
- Deadline
- 62d Jan 1, 2027
📉 Alert day 9% → now 3% · day-one NO +6.6%