📈 Track record · updated daily from Polymarket and Kalshi price history
If you'd subscribed, you'd be winning.
Dumb bets are born overpriced. The day they appear, the hype is fresh and YES trades at silly prices. Then the internet notices, reality sinks in and YES collapses. Buying NO on alert day and selling later is where the money is. Waiting 14 months for 1% is not.
Buying NO today and holding to the end pays a median of +4.3%. Our subscribers would have locked in +6.4%. 🚨 Get the next one on day one
| Bet | YES on alert day | YES now | NO position today | If it resolves NO | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $130.1K traded · June 30, 2027 | 28.0% | 9.5% | +25.7% | +38.9% | 15 |
| Near room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?⏳ Physics-Defying · $5.4K traded | 15.0% | 3.0% | +14.1% | +17.6% | 170 |
| Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?🚀 Space Fantasy · $55.1K traded | 21.0% | 10.0% | +13.9% | +26.6% | 699 |
| Obama arrested before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $27.4K traded | 12.0% | 2.6% | +10.7% | +13.6% | 359 |
| Will the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $14.7K traded | 12.0% | 5.0% | +8.0% | +13.6% | 43 |
| Trump on $250 bill this year?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $39.2K traded | 9.5% | 3.0% | +7.2% | +10.5% | 155 |
| NATO dissolves before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $126.0K traded | 8.5% | 2.1% | +7.0% | +9.3% | 295 |
| Will Trump nationalize SpaceX?💼 Corporate Fanfic · $21.8K traded | 9.0% | 3.0% | +6.6% | +9.9% | 511 |
| Will the US take control of any part of Canada?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $149.7K traded | 15.0% | 9.9% | +6.0% | +17.6% | 659 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?👽 Aliens & UFOs · $75.9M traded · December 31 | 8.0% | 3.4% | +5.0% | +8.7% | 339 |
| Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $6.2K traded | 6.0% | 1.5% | +4.8% | +6.4% | 291 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $35.9M traded | 7.0% | 2.6% | +4.8% | +7.5% | 311 |
| Fed abolished before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $8.2K traded | 5.5% | 1.6% | +4.2% | +5.8% | 359 |
| Anthropic lab leak by...?💼 Corporate Fanfic · $165.1K traded · June 30, 2027 | 10.5% | 7.0% | +3.9% | +11.7% | 41 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?🕵️ Conspiracy · $2.6M traded | 4.6% | 0.9% | +3.8% | +4.8% | 305 |
| 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?⏳ Physics-Defying · $834.0K traded | 4.7% | 1.4% | +3.5% | +4.9% | 326 |
| Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?🕵️ Conspiracy · $72.2K traded | 13.0% | 10.0% | +3.4% | +14.9% | 260 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?🙏 Theology · $66.8M traded | 4.3% | 1.2% | +3.2% | +4.4% | 339 |
| Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $201.5K traded | 5.5% | 2.6% | +3.1% | +5.8% | 148 |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $113.8K traded | 3.8% | 1.0% | +2.9% | +3.9% | 304 |
| Will the US recognize Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $2.6K traded | 13.0% | 11.0% | +2.3% | +14.9% | 57 |
| Human moon landing in 2026?🚀 Space Fantasy · $2.0M traded | 3.2% | 1.0% | +2.3% | +3.3% | 296 |
| Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $43.7K traded | 7.5% | 5.5% | +2.2% | +8.1% | 323 |
| EU dissolves before 2027?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $188.3K traded | 3.9% | 1.8% | +2.2% | +4.0% | 327 |
| Will Alberta join the US?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $2.2M traded | 3.5% | 1.6% | +1.9% | +3.6% | 266 |
| Is Earth flat?⏳ Physics-Defying · $68.8K traded | 2.1% | 0.6% | +1.5% | +2.1% | 144 |
| Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?🎤 Celebrity Delusion · $18.6K traded | 1.4% | 0.1% | +1.3% | +1.4% | 66 |
| SSI announces it has achieved SSI by December 31?💼 Corporate Fanfic · $7.3K traded | 5.0% | 4.0% | +1.1% | +5.3% | 80 |
| Will Venezuela become 51st state?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $400.1K traded | 2.9% | 2.3% | +0.6% | +2.9% | 299 |
| Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $5.1K traded | 8.0% | 7.5% | +0.5% | +8.7% | 43 |
| Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?🎤 Celebrity Delusion · $6.5K traded | 1.9% | 1.5% | +0.4% | +1.9% | 78 |
| Trump goes to space in 2026?🚀 Space Fantasy · $66.6K traded | 2.5% | 2.5% | +0.0% | +2.5% | 183 |
| Next Superman film: Will Elon Musk be cast?🎤 Celebrity Delusion · $28.0K traded | 2.0% | 2.0% | +0.0% | +2.0% | 444 |
| Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?🏛️ Political Fantasy · $9.6K traded | 9.0% | 11.0% | −2.2% | +9.9% | 469 |
| Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?💼 Corporate Fanfic · $30.7K traded | 2.8% | 6.9% | −4.3% | +2.8% | 29 |
How we count (no cherry-picking, losers included)
Alert day is the price about 24 hours after the market (or the specific outcome shown) first started trading, which is when an alert lands in your inbox. We skip the untraded 50¢ opening quote.
NO position today is what a NO share bought on alert day is worth now: (1 − YES now) ÷ (1 − YES on alert day) − 1. You can sell at any time on the exchange; you don't have to wait for the deadline. If it resolves NO is the payout of holding that share to the end.
Every bet currently in the Hall of Shame with a price history is listed. That is still a biased sample: bets whose YES went up a lot no longer qualify for the Hall of Shame. Prices ignore fees, spreads and thin order books on new markets. Past moves say nothing guaranteed about the next one. This is not financial advice, and prediction markets may be restricted where you live.