Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?

The fine print (official resolution rules from Kalshi. Read them: this is where "impossible" bets get easy)

If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to any 3rd Amendment case before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The case must meet the following requirements: (1) The petition for certiorari explicitly raises a claim or question under the Third Amendment to the United States Constitution as a question presented; OR (2) The lower court decision being appealed explicitly addressed a Third Amendment claim on the merits; OR (3) The Supreme Court's order granting certiorari explicitly identifies a Third Amendment issue as a question for review. For the avoidance of doubt: A case where the Third Amendment is mentioned only in passing, in dicta, or as part of a general constitutional analysis without being a distinct claim SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion A case where the Third Amendment is raised only in amicus briefs but not by the parties SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: the Court grants cert in a case where a homeowner challenges military housing requirements under the Third Amendment; the Court grants cert in a case where the question presented is "Whether police officers qualify as 'soldiers' under the Third Amendment”; the Court grants cert where a lower court ruled on the scope of Third Amendment protections and that ruling is being appealed.

Tags: Politics · Listed Jul 18, 2025 · Judged Oct 31, 2026 by claude (manual review)