💼 Corporate Fanfic · Polymarket
Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
Hadamard and Ramsey are famous for humbling human mathematicians for decades. Betting an AI lab cracks one in a single year treats open conjectures like a leaderboard entry.
The options people are paying for
- Hadamard Matrix Conjecture26%
- Ramsey Number R(5,5)24%
- Hodge Conjecture21%
- Yang-Mills20%
- Beal's Conjecture16%
- Hadwiger-Nelson Problem15%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer9.5%
- Riemann Hypothesis8%
- Twin Prime Conjecture8%
- Collatz Conjecture7.5%
- Strong Goldbach Conjecture5.5%
- Odd Perfect Number5.5%
The fine print (official resolution rules from Polymarket. Read them: this is where "impossible" bets get easy)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Tags: AI, Math, Tech, Science, Millennium Prize, AI Achievements · Listed Sep 9, 2026 · Judged Oct 31, 2026 by anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
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